Ordering Likelihood
Match the Probability Word (Set A)
Draw a line from each event to the word that best describes its likelihood.
Match the Probability Word (Set B)
Draw a line to match.
Sort by Likelihood (Set A)
Sort each event.
Sort by Likelihood (Set B)
Sort each event.
More Likely or Less Likely? (Set A)
Circle the event that is MORE likely.
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
More Likely or Less Likely? (Set B)
Circle the event that is more likely.
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Impossible, Possible or Certain? (Set A)
Circle the correct answer.
You will grow taller this year
A cat will speak English
The next baby born will be a girl
Tuesday will follow Monday
Impossible, Possible or Certain? (Set B)
Circle the correct answer.
You will see a bird this week
Rolling a 0 on a regular dice
It being dark tonight
Finding a four-leaf clover today
Likelihood Scale
On a scale from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain), where does each event fall?
Flipping heads on a fair coin
The sun rising tomorrow
Rolling a 13 on a normal dice
Match Probability Words to Fractions
Draw a line from each word to its approximate fraction.
Probability Adds to 1
The chance of something happening + not happening = 1. Find the missing part (out of 10).
Dice Probability (Set A)
A normal dice has numbers 1–6. Circle the correct answer.
Chance of rolling a 3:
Chance of rolling a number less than 7:
Chance of rolling a number greater than 4:
Dice Probability (Set B)
Circle the correct answer about dice.
Chance of rolling an even number:
Chance of rolling a 0:
Chance of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6:
Describe the Likelihood
Describe the likelihood of each event using a probability word.
Picking a red ball from a bag of 10 red balls: ___
Getting a 6 when rolling a dice: ___
It snowing in tropical Queensland: ___
Flipping a coin and getting either heads or tails: ___
Sort: Equally Likely or Not
Sort each pair of outcomes.
Sort by Likelihood (Set C)
Sort each event.
Sort by Likelihood (Set D)
Sort each event.
More Likely or Less Likely? (Set C)
Circle the MORE LIKELY event.
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
More Likely or Less Likely? (Set D)
Circle the more likely event.
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Which is more likely?
Probability Words (Set C)
Circle the best probability word.
A bag has 10 red marbles and 0 blue. Picking red is:
A bag has 5 red and 5 blue. Picking red is:
A bag has 1 red and 9 blue. Picking red is:
A bag has 0 red and 10 blue. Picking red is:
Probability Words (Set D)
Circle the best word.
Rolling less than 7 on a normal dice:
Rolling a 6 on a normal dice:
Getting a number from 1 to 6 on a dice:
Rolling a 0 on a normal dice:
Match Events to Likelihood (Set C)
Draw a line to match.
Match Events to Likelihood (Set D)
Draw a line to match.
How Many of Each Colour? (Set A)
A bag has coloured marbles. Total = partA + partB.
How Many of Each Colour? (Set B)
Find the missing number.
Describe the Likelihood (Set B)
Describe using a probability word.
A spinner with 3 equal red sections and 1 blue: landing on red is ___
Pulling a green ball from a bag of 10 green balls: ___
Rolling a number greater than 4 on a dice: ___
A cat speaking English: ___
Tossing a coin and getting either heads or tails: ___
Describe the Likelihood (Set C)
Use words: impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, certain.
Picking a vowel from the word AEIOU: ___
It being dark at midnight: ___
Rolling an odd number on a dice: ___
Picking a purple marble from a bag of red marbles: ___
Record Dice Outcomes by Likelihood
Roll a dice 20 times. Record outcomes.
| Item | Tally | Total |
|---|---|---|
1 | ||
2 | ||
3 | ||
4 | ||
5 | ||
6 |
Marble Bag – Likelihood Graph
A bag has these marbles. Use the graph to answer likelihood questions.
| Red | |
| Blue | |
| Green |
Which colour is most likely to be picked?
Which colour is least likely?
Is picking red certain, likely, or even chance?
Is picking green impossible, unlikely, or even chance?
Spinner Sections – Likelihood Graph
A spinner has these sections. Answer likelihood questions.
| Yellow | |
| Purple | |
| Orange |
Is landing on yellow or purple equally likely? Why?
Which colour is least likely?
Is landing on orange impossible or just unlikely?
True or False? (Likelihood – Set B)
Circle TRUE or FALSE.
Impossible means it will never happen
Certain means it might happen
Even chance means both outcomes are equally likely
Likely means it will definitely happen
True or False? (Likelihood – Set C)
Circle TRUE or FALSE.
If a bag has 8 red and 2 blue, red is more likely
All outcomes on a fair dice are equally likely
If something is unlikely, it cannot happen
A spinner with equal sections gives equal chances
Likelihood Ordering – Numbers
These show probability from 0 (impossible) to 10 (certain). Continue.
Order Events by Likelihood (Set A)
Number these events 1 (least likely) to 5 (most likely).
Order Events by Likelihood (Set B)
Number from 1 (least likely) to 5 (most likely).
Write Your Own Events (Set A)
Write an event for each likelihood level.
An IMPOSSIBLE event:
An UNLIKELY event:
An event with EVEN CHANCE:
A LIKELY event:
A CERTAIN event:
Write Your Own Events (Set B)
Think of events from everyday life.
Something that is CERTAIN to happen at school:
Something that is UNLIKELY to happen at school:
Something with EVEN CHANCE at lunch time:
Likelihood in Games
Think about probability in games.
In a dice game, is rolling a 3 more or less likely than rolling an odd number? Explain.
A bag has 3 red, 5 blue and 2 green balls. Which colour are you most likely to pick? Least likely?
Probability from Spinners
A spinner has 4 equal sections: red, blue, green, yellow.
Chance of landing on red:
Chance of NOT landing on red:
Chance of landing on purple:
Chance of landing on any colour:
Probability Reasoning
Answer these thinking questions.
Can an event be both impossible and unlikely at the same time? Explain.
If you flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row, is the next flip more likely to be tails? Why?
A bag has 10 marbles. You want an even chance of picking red. How many red marbles should there be?
Challenge: Design a Fair Game
Design a game using probability.
Design a spinner game where each player has an equal chance of winning. Describe the spinner.
Now design a spinner that gives one player a better chance. How is it different?
Home Activity: Probability in Daily Life
Explore probability in everyday situations!
- 1List 5 things that will happen today. Order them from least likely to most likely.
- 2Make predictions about tomorrow's weather. Rate each as unlikely, even chance, or likely.
- 3Put different coloured socks in a bag. Predict which colour you will pull out.
- 4Flip a coin 20 times. Was it close to even chance (10 heads, 10 tails)?
Sort Events on the Likelihood Scale
Sort each event by placing it on the likelihood scale.
Probability as a Fraction
Write each probability as a fraction.
A bag has 3 red and 7 blue marbles. P(red) = ___
A dice is rolled. P(even number) = ___
A spinner has 4 equal sections: 1 red, 1 blue, 2 green. P(green) = ___
A bag has 5 apples and 5 oranges. P(apple) = ___
Probability Fractions (Set A)
Circle the correct probability.
Probability of rolling a number less than 3 on a dice:
Probability of picking a vowel from the letters A, B, C, D, E:
P(impossible event) =
P(certain event) =
Match Events to Their Probability Description
Draw a line from each event to the correct probability word.
Ordering Events by Likelihood
Order these events from least likely to most likely.
Events: (A) rolling a 5 on a dice, (B) picking a red card from a standard deck, (C) flipping tails on a coin, (D) picking an ace from a standard deck. Order: ___, ___, ___, ___
Explain why you ordered them this way.
Comparing Probabilities
Which event is more likely? Explain.
Bag A: 3 red, 7 blue. Bag B: 5 red, 5 blue. Which bag gives a higher chance of red?
Spinner A: 1/4 red. Spinner B: 3/8 red. Which spinner is more likely to land on red?
Complementary Events
If P(event) = p, then P(not that event) = 1 − p. Find the complement.
P(rain) = 3/5. P(no rain) = ___
P(rolling even on dice) = 1/2. P(rolling odd) = ___
P(picking green) = 1/4. P(not picking green) = ___
P(winning a game) = 0.3. P(not winning) = ___
Coin Flip Results
Record results of 40 coin flips in this tally chart.
| Item | Tally | Total |
|---|---|---|
Heads | ||
Tails |
Experimental Probability
A coin is flipped 100 times. Heads appeared 58 times.
Experimental probability of heads = ___/100 = ___
Theoretical probability of heads = ___
Are they the same? Why might they be different?
If you flipped the coin 1000 times, would you expect the experimental probability to be closer to 1/2? Why?
Probability and Sample Space
A sample space is all possible outcomes.
List all possible outcomes when rolling a dice: ___
List all possible outcomes when flipping a coin: ___
List all possible outcomes when choosing from 3 cards: A, B, C and 2 colours: red, blue: ___
Probability Word Problems
Solve each probability word problem.
A bag has 4 red, 2 green and 6 blue counters. You pick one without looking. What is P(green)?
A class has 18 girls and 12 boys. A student is picked at random. P(girl) = ___
What colour counter would you add to make P(red) = 1/3 if there are currently 4 red and 8 blue?
Challenge: Designing a Fair Game
Design a fair game using probability.
Design a spinner where each player (A, B, C) has an equal chance of winning.
Now design a spinner that gives Player A a 1/2 chance, Player B a 1/4 chance, Player C a 1/4 chance.
Is the second spinner fair? What does 'fair' mean in probability?