Probability

Simulations with Digital Tools

1

Match the Simulation Tool

Match each experiment to a good simulation tool.

Rolling a die 1,000 times
Flipping a coin 500 times
Drawing from a deck
Spinning a spinner
Online spinner tool
Spreadsheet random numbers
Coin flip app
Card shuffle program
2

Why Use Simulations?

Circle the best reason.

Why simulate 1,000 coin flips digitally?

Faster
More fun
Coins are expensive

Most useful when:

Few results needed
Many results quickly
You prefer paper

Reliable with:

10 trials
50 trials
1,000 trials
3

More Simulation Questions

Circle the correct answer.

A 'trial' is:

One run of the experiment
The final answer
The tool used

More trials means:

Less reliable
More reliable
No difference

Random number generators produce:

Predictable
Unpredictable
Only even numbers
4

Simulation Vocabulary

Define each term.

Simulation: ___

Trial: ___

Random: ___

Frequency: ___

5

Sort: When to Simulate?

Sort each situation.

1,000 coin flips
5 coin flips
Rolling a die 500 times
Drawing 1 card
10,000 random events
Flipping a coin once
Good to Simulate
Better Done Physically
6

Record Simulation Results

30 die rolls produced these results.

ItemTallyTotal
Rolled 1
Rolled 2
Rolled 3
Rolled 4
Rolled 5
Rolled 6
7

Analyse the Simulation

Use the die simulation results above.

Most rolled number: ___

Least rolled number: ___

Fraction of 6s: ___

Expected per number in 30 rolls: ___

8

Coin Flip Analysis

100 coin flips: 53 heads, 47 tails.

Fraction that were heads: ___

Percentage that were tails: ___

Close to expected? Explain: ___

Would 1,000 flips be closer to 50/50? Why? ___

9

Spinner Simulation

4 equal sections (A–D) spun 80 times: A=22, B=18, C=21, D=19.

Expected per section: ___

Sections above expected: ___

Spinner likely fair? ___

10

Predict Before Simulating

Before running a simulation, predict the results.

If you flip a coin 100 times, predict: Heads ≈ ___ Tails ≈ ___

If you roll a die 60 times, predict how many 3s: ≈ ___

If a spinner has 5 equal sections spun 100 times, predict per section: ≈ ___

11

Interpreting Simulation Data

Circle the best interpretation.

50 coin flips: 28 heads. The coin is:

Definitely unfair
Probably fair
Cannot tell from 50 flips

1000 coin flips: 520 heads. The coin is:

Definitely unfair
Probably fair
Cannot tell

Die rolled 12 times, no 6s. The die is:

Unfair
Could be fair (too few trials)
Broken
12

Plan a Simulation Step by Step

Write out the steps for running a digital simulation.

Step 1 (choose your question): ___

Step 2 (choose your tool): ___

Step 3 (decide number of trials): ___

Step 4 (run and record): ___

Step 5 (analyse results): ___

13

Design Your Own Simulation

Plan a simulation.

Question to answer: ___

Tool: ___

Number of trials and why: ___

How to record and display: ___

14

Evaluate a Simulation

A student rolled a die 10 times and got 4 sixes. They said it was unfair.

Is 10 trials enough? Explain: ___

How many trials would you recommend? ___

Expected 6s in 600 rolls: ___

15

Compare Physical and Digital

Compare physical experiments vs simulations.

Advantage of digital: ___

Disadvantage of digital: ___

When prefer physical? ___

16

Home Activity: Digital Experiments

Run simulations at home!

  • 1Use an online dice roller for 100 rolls. Record results.
  • 2Use a spreadsheet for 50 random numbers (1–6).
  • 3Use a coin flip app for 200 flips. Close to 50%?
  • 4Compare results from 20, 100 and 500 trials.
  • 5Ask a parent to help find a free simulation tool.
17

What is a Simulation?

Explain what a simulation is in your own words.

A simulation is... ___

Give an example from everyday life: ___

Why would we prefer simulation over doing the real experiment? ___

18

Match Experiment to Number of Trials

Match each experiment to the most appropriate number of trials.

Exploring the law of large numbers
Quick classroom demo
Publishing a science paper
Testing a simple coin
50 trials
10,000 trials
100 trials
1,000,000 trials
19

Record 100-Roll Simulation

Use an online die roller. Roll 100 times. Record outcomes.

ItemTallyTotal
1
2
3
4
5
6
20

Analyse Your Simulation

Use your tally chart results to answer these questions.

Most common outcome: ___

Expected frequency of each (100 rolls, fair die): ___

Biggest difference between observed and expected: ___

Does this mean the die is unfair? Explain: ___

21

Simulation Vocabulary

Circle the correct meaning.

A 'trial' in a simulation is:

One single experiment
The final result
The software used

'Random number generator' does:

Produces unpredictable numbers
Always gives same numbers
Counts occurrences

More trials generally means:

Results closer to theoretical
Bigger variation
Less reliable data

A simulation replaces:

A real-world experiment
Mathematical theory
All probability rules
22

Simulation Results Comparison

This graph shows heads in coin flip simulations of different sizes. Each circle = 10 heads. Answer the questions.

10 flips
50 flips
100 flips
500 flips
1000 flips
1

Which simulation gave exactly 50% heads?

2

Which varied most from 50%?

3

What does this show about more trials?

23

Spreadsheet Formula Planning

Plan how you would use a spreadsheet to simulate rolling a die 200 times.

Formula to generate a random number 1–6: ___

How would you count how many times 6 appeared? ___

How would you calculate the percentage of 6s? ___

How would you display results? ___

24

Advantages vs Disadvantages of Digital Simulations

Sort each feature into the correct column.

Run 10,000 trials instantly
Requires access to technology
Easy to repeat
Random number generators aren't truly random
Can display results graphically
May not model real-world complexity
Advantage
Disadvantage
25

Birthday Problem Simulation

The birthday problem: in a group of 23, there's a >50% chance two share a birthday.

Why is this surprising? ___

How could you simulate this? ___

What tool would you use? ___

26

Steps for a Digital Simulation

Put the simulation steps in order.

?
Analyse and compare to theoretical
?
Choose the right digital tool
?
Record and tally outcomes
?
Define the question and probability
?
Set number of trials and run
27

Law of Large Numbers

Describe the law of large numbers in your own words.

The law of large numbers states: ___

Example using coins: ___

Why does this law matter for simulations? ___

28

Design a Simulation for a Complex Event

Design a simulation to find the probability that a soccer team wins 3 games in a row (P(win) = 0.6 per game).

How would you represent one game? ___

What counts as success? ___

How many trials? ___

Expected P(3 wins in a row) = 0.6³ = ___

29

Interpreting Simulation Results

Circle the correct interpretation.

Simulated P(heads) = 0.48 after 1000 flips. Coin is:

Probably fair
Definitely biased
Needs to be replaced

Expected P(6) = 1/6. After 600 rolls got 95 sixes. This is:

Close to expected
Very unusual
Impossible

More trials makes results:

More reliable
Less reliable
No change

Simulation can replace:

Impractical experiments
All theory
Mathematical proof
30

Match the Simulation Use Case

Match each real-world situation to a simulation approach.

Testing crash safety
Weather forecasting
Training surgeons
Planning emergency evacuations
Virtual reality simulation
Computer model
Crash test dummies
Agent-based simulation
31

Evaluate a Classmate's Simulation

A classmate says: 'I flipped a coin 10 times and got 8 heads, so the coin is biased.'

Is 10 trials enough? ___

What would you suggest? ___

P(8 or more heads in 10 fair flips) is about 5%. Does that change your answer? ___

32

Random vs True Random

Computers use pseudo-random number generators (PRNG). Answer these questions.

What does 'pseudo-random' mean? ___

Why does this matter for simulations? ___

What is one way to improve randomness in a simulation? ___

33

Reflection on Simulations

Write a short reflection on what you have learned.

Most interesting thing I learned about simulations: ___

A career that uses simulations regularly: ___

A question I still have about simulations: ___