Likelihood of Everyday Events

Pulling a red marble from a bag of all red marbles: ___

Rolling a number less than 7 on a normal dice: ___

Flipping a coin and getting heads: ___

Finding a dinosaur at school tomorrow: ___

Certain: ___

Likely: ___

Unlikely: ___

Impossible: ___

Draw a line from Impossible to Certain. Mark where these go: - The sun rising tomorrow - Rolling a 6 on a dice - It raining today - A dog talking

Draw a number line from 0 to 1. Mark these events: - Impossible (0) - Even chance (0.5) - Certain (1) - Rolling a 6 on a dice (close to 0.17) - Picking from a bag of all red balls (1)

Certain: ___

Likely: ___

Even chance: ___

Unlikely: ___

Impossible: ___

Certain event at school today: ___

Unlikely event at school today: ___

An event with even chance: ___

An impossible event at school: ___

Bag A: 5 red marbles. Chance of picking red: ___

Bag B: 5 red, 5 blue marbles. Chance of picking red: ___

Bag C: 1 red, 9 blue marbles. Chance of picking red: ___

Bag D: 10 blue marbles. Chance of picking red: ___

Design a bag where it is CERTAIN to pick blue: ___

Design a bag where it is IMPOSSIBLE to pick green: ___

Design a bag where it is EQUALLY LIKELY to pick red or blue: ___

Design a bag where it is UNLIKELY to pick yellow: ___

Name a game where chance plays a big role: ___

What makes that game unpredictable? ___

Name a game where skill matters more than chance: ___

How is chance different from skill in games? ___

Draw a spinner with 4 equal sections coloured Red, Blue, Green and Yellow. Is it fair? ___

Change the spinner so Red is twice as likely as the others. Describe your changes: ___

What does 'even chance' mean? ___

Can you make an impossible event possible? Explain: ___

Why is understanding chance useful in daily life? ___

A day in July in Sydney. Chance of snow: ___

A day in December in Sydney. Chance of hot weather: ___

Any random day in Queensland. Chance of sunshine: ___

A day in Darwin in January (wet season). Chance of rain: ___

A bag has 3 red and 7 blue marbles. Chance of red = ___

A bag has 5 red and 5 blue marbles. Chance of red = ___

A bag has 10 red marbles only. Chance of red = ___

A bag has no red marbles. Chance of red = ___

A game uses a dice: roll a 1 or 2 to win. Is it fair? ___

How would you change the game to make it fair? ___

How would you make the game so Player A has a better chance? ___

Name a sport where chance plays a big role: ___ Why? ___

Name a sport where skill matters more than chance: ___ Why? ___

How is flipping a coin used in sport? ___

Probability of drawing red = ___/10

Probability of drawing blue = ___/10

P(red) + P(blue) = ___ Why does this make sense? ___

Draw your spinner (divide a circle into sections). Label colours.

Probability of green winning = ___/total sections

Probability of not-green winning = ___/total sections

Draw and label your spinner (4 equal sections).

Probability of any one player winning = ___

Why is it fair? ___

Rolling a 3 on a dice: ___

Flipping heads: ___

Drawing red from 8 red and 2 blue: ___

Drawing blue from 9 red and 1 blue: ___

The sun will rise tomorrow: ___

You will see a dinosaur at school: ___

You will get homework this week: ___

It will rain on any random day in your city: ___

Explain the difference between 'likely' and 'certain': ___

Give an example of an event with even probability: ___

How is probability used in everyday life? ___

Impossible: ___

Unlikely: ___

Even chance: ___

Likely: ___

Certain: ___

If the weather forecast says 80% chance of rain, is rain: certain, likely, even chance, or unlikely? ___

What would a 10% chance of rain mean using our chance words? ___

Write your own weather prediction using likelihood language:

How many equal sections does your spinner have? ___ What colours did you use?

What is the chance of landing on any one colour? ___ out of ___

If you added another colour with a double-sized section, how would that change things?

In Snakes and Ladders, what is the chance of rolling a 6 on your first turn? ___ out of ___

If the board has 3 snakes and 1 ladder, are you more likely to go up or down? ___

How could you change the dice to make the game more exciting?

Describe your game: ___

What is the probability of winning? ___ out of ___

Is your game fair? How do you know?

In Sydney in January, rain every day is: ___

Snow in Alice Springs is: ___

Hot weather in Darwin in summer is: ___

Explain why climate affects probability of weather events:

A bag has 3 red, 2 blue, 5 green marbles. Chance of picking red = ___ out of ___

Is picking green more or less likely than picking red? ___ Why? ___

What colour is most likely? ___ Least likely? ___

Is this game fair? ___ Why or why not?

What changes would make the game unfair?

Design your own fair game using a dice: